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Testing Alternatives
The ability to systematically test multiple competing hypotheses instead of just confirming your favorite one.
Understanding the skill
Why this matters
- You stop fooling yourself by only looking for confirming evidence.
- Testing alternatives catches flaws in your own thinking.
- You reach better conclusions by considering real competitors.
What goes wrong
- Only looking for evidence that supports your hypothesis.
- Dismissing alternatives without really testing them.
- Confusing 'possible' with 'true just because I can't prove it false'.
Best practices
- Before gathering evidence, list what would prove each hypothesis wrong.
- Search for evidence that contradicts your favorite hypothesis first.
- Treat the strongest version of competing hypotheses, not strawmen.
Further reading
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
2015
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business
Douglas W. Hubbard
2014
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke
2018
The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't
Julia Galef
2021
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
Nate Silver
2012