Reasoning Frameworks
15 categories • 98 reasoning frameworks
Core Inference
7 frameworks
Deductive Reasoning
Derive logically certain conclusions from premises (if premises true and form valid).
Inductive Reasoning
Generalize from observations to probabilistic conclusions.
Abductive Reasoning
Infer the best explanation for observed facts.
Analogical Reasoning
Transfer structure from a known domain to a new one based on similarity.
Counterfactual Reasoning
Reason about 'what would have happened if…' to test causality and decisions.
Case-Based Reasoning
Solve new problems by adapting solutions from similar past cases.
Default Reasoning
Assume typical rules apply unless evidence indicates exceptions.
Uncertainty & Probability
7 frameworks
Bayesian Updating
Update beliefs by combining priors with new evidence.
Frequentist Statistical Inference
Estimate parameters and test hypotheses using sampling distributions and p-values.
Likelihood Thinking
Compare hypotheses by how well they predict the data (likelihood ratios).
Base Rate Reasoning
Anchor judgments in population rates before using case-specific evidence.
Expected Value Reasoning
Evaluate choices by probability-weighted outcomes.
Risk vs Uncertainty Separation
Distinguish quantifiable risk from unquantifiable uncertainty (Knightian).
Calibration Practice
Train probabilistic judgment by scoring forecasts against outcomes.
Decision Analysis
15 frameworks
Expected Utility Theory
Choose actions that maximize expected utility rather than expected value.
Sensitivity Analysis
Test how conclusions change with assumptions and parameter variation.
Scenario Analysis
Evaluate decisions across multiple plausible futures.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Estimate outcomes by simulating many random draws from uncertain variables.
Value of Information
Quantify whether gathering more information is worth the cost/time.
Decision Tree Analysis
Model sequential decisions with probabilities and payoffs.
Influence Diagrams
Compact causal/decision graph connecting choices, uncertainties, and objectives.
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
Compare options across weighted criteria.
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Pairwise comparisons to derive weights and rank alternatives.
Cost–Benefit Analysis
Quantify costs and benefits to guide choices.
Opportunity Cost
Value of the best alternative forgone.
Regret Minimization
Choose actions that minimize expected regret or worst-case regret.
Reversible vs Irreversible Decisions
Separate 'two-way doors' from 'one-way doors' to choose speed and rigor.
Premortem
Assume failure happened; generate plausible causes to mitigate upfront.
Postmortem / After-Action Review
Extract lessons from outcomes and update processes.
Scientific Reasoning
7 frameworks
Scientific Method
Hypothesize, test, measure, revise; emphasize reproducibility and falsifiability.
Hypothetico-Deductive Method
Derive testable predictions from hypotheses and attempt to refute them.
Falsificationism
Prefer theories that survive serious attempts at refutation.
Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE)
Select hypotheses that best explain the evidence with parsimony and fit.
Operationalization
Define measurable proxies for abstract concepts to test claims.
Model Selection
Choose among models using predictive accuracy and complexity penalties.
Replication & Triangulation
Validate findings via repeated studies and independent methods.
Causality
8 frameworks
Causal Inference with DAGs
Use causal graphs to reason about confounding, interventions, and identification.
Counterfactual Causal Models
Model interventions and counterfactuals (do-operator style thinking).
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)
Infer causal effects via random assignment.
Quasi-Experimental Designs
Infer causality when randomization isn’t possible (DiD, RDD, IV, matching).
Root Cause Analysis (RCA)
Systematically trace from symptoms to underlying causes.
Five Whys
Iteratively ask 'why' to dig from symptom to cause.
Fishbone / Ishikawa Diagram
Categorize possible causes to structure investigation.
Fault Tree Analysis
Top-down logical decomposition of how failures can occur.
Argumentation
8 frameworks
Toulmin Argument Model
Claim–Data–Warrant–Backing–Qualifier–Rebuttal structure.
Claim–Evidence–Reasoning (CER)
A simple framework to build evidence-backed explanations.
Pragma-Dialectical Argumentation
Rules for critical discussion aimed at resolving differences reasonably.
Argument Mapping
Visualize premises, objections, and support to assess structure and gaps.
Steelmanning
Reconstruct the strongest version of an opposing argument before evaluating it.
Principle of Charity
Interpret others’ statements in the most reasonable way consistent with evidence.
Burden of Proof
Assign responsibility for providing evidence based on claim strength and context.
Fallacy Checking
Detect invalid forms and misleading rhetoric (informal and formal fallacies).
Problem Structuring
7 frameworks
MECE (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive)
Partition a problem space cleanly without overlaps or gaps.
Issue Tree / Logic Tree
Decompose a question into sub-questions until actionable.
Hypothesis-Driven Development
Start with a testable hypothesis, then seek evidence to confirm/refute.
Problem Framing & Reframing
Test alternative problem statements to uncover better solution spaces.
Constraint-Led Thinking
Use constraints to sharpen choices and reveal trade-offs.
First Principles Decomposition
Break assumptions down to fundamentals and rebuild from ground truth.
Inversion
Solve by asking how to cause failure or the opposite outcome, then avoid it.
Systems & Complexity
7 frameworks
Systems Thinking
Reason about interconnected components, feedback, and emergent behavior.
System Dynamics
Stocks, flows, delays, and feedback loops to model system behavior over time.
Complex Adaptive Systems
Model agents adapting locally leading to emergent macro-patterns.
Cynefin Framework
Classify contexts (clear/complicated/complex/chaotic) to choose response style.
Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety (Intuitive)
Controllers need sufficient variety to regulate system variety.
Leverage Points
Identify high-impact intervention points within systems.
Bottleneck / Theory of Constraints
Improve system throughput by addressing the limiting constraint.
Operational Reasoning
5 frameworks
OODA Loop
Observe–Orient–Decide–Act cycles for fast adaptation.
PDCA Cycle
Plan–Do–Check–Act for continuous improvement.
DMAIC (Six Sigma)
Define–Measure–Analyze–Improve–Control for process improvement.
After-Action Review (AAR)
Structured reflection: expected vs happened, why, and what to change.
Double-Loop Learning
Improve not just actions but underlying assumptions and governing variables.
Dialogue & Sensemaking
5 frameworks
Socratic Method
Use probing questions to expose assumptions and refine beliefs.
Ladder of Inference
Track how observations become interpretations and beliefs to avoid leaps.
Sensemaking Loop
Iterate between data, frames, narratives, and action to reduce uncertainty.
Rubber Duck Debugging (Articulation)
Explain aloud to uncover gaps and contradictions.
Six Thinking Hats
Force perspective shifts (facts, emotions, risks, benefits, creativity, process).
Creative Reasoning
5 frameworks
Design Thinking
Empathize–Define–Ideate–Prototype–Test for human-centered solutions.
TRIZ
Inventive problem-solving via contradiction analysis and solution patterns.
SCAMPER
Idea generation via Substitute/Combine/Adapt/Modify/Put to use/Eliminate/Reverse.
Morphological Analysis
Explore combinations of parameter values to generate solution spaces.
Divergent → Convergent Cycle
Expand options broadly, then narrow via evaluation and constraints.
Adversarial Reasoning
4 frameworks
Red Teaming
Actively attack plans/models to uncover hidden vulnerabilities.
Devil’s Advocate
Assign a role to challenge assumptions and surface counterarguments.
Threat Modeling (Generalized)
Identify assets, adversaries, attack paths, and mitigations.
Precommitment
Bind future actions to resist predictable failures or temptations.
Strategy
5 frameworks
SWOT Analysis
Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats to structure strategic thinking.
Porter’s Five Forces
Analyze industry structure via competitive forces.
Jobs to Be Done (JTBD)
Frame demand as progress customers hire products to achieve.
Theory of Change
Map how interventions lead to outcomes via assumptions and causal pathways.
Balanced Scorecard
Reason across multiple performance perspectives (financial, customer, process, learning).
Group Reasoning
4 frameworks
Delphi Method
Iterative expert elicitation to converge on better forecasts/estimates.
Wisdom of Crowds (Aggregation)
Aggregate diverse independent judgments to improve accuracy.
Prediction Markets (Conceptual)
Use market prices as aggregated probabilistic forecasts.
Nominal Group Technique
Structured idea generation and voting to reduce groupthink.
Meta-Reasoning
4 frameworks
Goodhart’s Law
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
All Models Are Wrong (But Some Useful)
Treat models as tools with domains and failure modes, not truth.
Map–Territory Check
Explicitly list what your representation ignores and where it might fail.
Epistemic Humility
Maintain appropriate confidence; seek disconfirming evidence.