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Generating Hypotheses
The ability to create testable hypotheses from observations and questions that can be systematically verified.
Understanding the skill
Why this matters
- Good hypotheses turn vague curiosity into specific experiments.
- You stop guessing and start testing.
- Clear hypotheses reveal what you actually don't know.
What goes wrong
- Creating untestable hypotheses that sound smart but go nowhere.
- Assuming your first explanation is the only explanation.
- Not considering alternative hypotheses that fit the same observations.
Best practices
- Write your hypothesis so it could be proven false.
- List at least two competing hypotheses for any observation.
- Make hypotheses specific: 'X causes Y under conditions Z', not 'X might matter'.
Further reading
The Craft of Research
Wayne C. Booth, Gregory G. Colomb, Joseph M. Williams
2008
The Lean Startup: How Today's Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses
Eric Ries
2011
Testing Business Ideas: A Field Guide for Rapid Experimentation
David J. Bland, Alexander Osterwalder
2019
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman
2011
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
Nate Silver
2012