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Evaluating Credibility
The ability to assess the reliability and trustworthiness of sources and claims by evaluating their track record and incentives.
Understanding the skill
Why this matters
- You stop taking claims at face value just because they sound authoritative.
- You make better decisions by trusting the right sources.
- You spot manipulation early by noticing credibility red flags.
What goes wrong
- Assuming someone is credible because they're confident or well-known.
- Not checking whether a source has a financial or political incentive to lie.
- Trusting people in one domain when they speak about another.
Best practices
- Check: Does this source have a track record of accuracy?
- Ask: What incentives does this source have?
- Verify claims against independent sources before trusting.
Further reading
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman
2011
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
2015
How to Lie with Statistics
Darrell Huff
1954
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
Carl Sagan
1995
Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy
Cathy O'Neil
2016